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National Polls Missed a Massive Blue Wave All Cycle. Why?

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Summary

At THP, our final generic ballot had Democrats up 13 points among likely voters, 54 to 41, after earlier readings of 11, 9, and 12 points. Although votes in various House races are still being counted, that 13-point number essentially matches the final vote totals. It would be the largest midterm margin since 1974.

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    National Polls Missed a Massive Blue Wave All Cycle. Why?

    At THP, our final generic ballot had Democrats up 13 points among likely voters, 54 to 41, after earlier readings of 11, 9, and 12 points. Although votes in various House races are still being counted, that 13-point number essentially matches the final vote totals. It would...

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